曾文水庫防洪防淤整體綱要計畫–氣候變遷情境下之水文分析
游保杉教授-水文分析組
- 執行日期
101/01/02 至 101/02/29
- 經費
500,000 元
- 委託單位
巨廷工程顧問股份有限公司
- 摘要
本計畫整合氣象繁衍模式、水文模式與水庫供水模式以分析氣候變遷對水庫供水之影響，並提出水庫效能指標來評估氣候變遷之衝擊。於水庫效能指標的部分，本計畫採用單調性測試，挑選出適合應用於計畫區域之修正型乾旱風險指標，並藉由歷史乾旱紀錄進行指標之驗證及測試，分析結果指出：該指標對於乾旱事件有足夠的辨識能力。相較於基期農業缺水情況，A1B與A2情境無論是在近未來或是世紀末期程，大多數GCM的乾旱旬數均有大幅增加的情況。以A1B-S情境為例，發生乾旱情況之總時間增加為基期的1.8倍，而發生等級一級乾旱之總旬數則增加為基期的1.93倍。
- Abstract
This project aims at assessing the impact of climate change on water supply in Tseng-Wen Reservoir by integrating a weather generator, a hydrological model and a simulation model of reservoir operation. The project executed a monotonic test to find a suitable performance index of reservoir system from candidate indices. The suitable performance index was then validated by the historical drought events and proven to have the capability of being a drought risk index in the study area. The analysis results for agricultural water use show that the number of drought will significantly increase under A1B and A2 scenarios in comparison with the number during the baseline period. For example, the total number of 10-day period for all drought levels (including levels 1, 2, and 3) is around 1.8 times of the total number of 10-day period during the baseline period. The total number of 10-day period for drought level 1 is up to 1.93 times of the total number of 10-day period during the baseline period.