因應糧食安全之農業水資源經營策略-評估氣候變遷對農業乾旱風險之衝擊(契約編號︰102農科-8.2.4-利-b2)
游保杉教授-水文分析組
- 執行日期
102/05/16 至 102/12/31
- 經費
248,300 元
- 委託單位
農委會
- 摘要
本計畫發展「可適切反應氣候變遷條件之氣象繁衍模式」(簡稱修正型氣象繁衍模式)將氣候變遷對於降雨總量及乾溼日移轉機率之影響納入考慮，然後使用水文模式來模擬未來情境之流量資料，再藉由水庫供水模式模擬未來情境下的供水情況，最後採用具有單調特性且能提供較多乾旱訊息之修正型乾旱風險指標來量化氣候變遷對於乾旱風險之潛在衝擊，以提供未來水資源管理及調配作為參考。本計畫分析結果指出：多數情境資料顯示未來乾旱風險有增加之可能，其中以GCM5資料所推估之乾旱情況最為嚴重。GCM5之MDRI為0.5994，相較於基期情境指標值增加37%；水庫系統之可靠度由原本的0.6719降至0.3698；水庫系統恢復度由原本的0.0255減少至0.0092；而系統脆弱度則由0.2644增加至0.3448。
- Abstract
This work aims at assessing the impact of climate change on potential drought risk. Firstly, a weather generator (called modified weather generator) was developed with the ability of considering the possible changes in rainfall amounts and dry-wet transition probabilities for providing more detailed information. Secondly, a hydrological model was used to simulate the scenario runoffs under plausible climate change scenarios. Then, the water supply process was analyzed under plausible climate change scenarios through using a simulation model of reservoir operation. Finally, this work assessed the potential drought risk by using modified drought risk index (MDRI) which has monotonic behavior and provides more information about drought events. Under the future climate change scenario, most of results show drought events will be more severe where the result of GCM5 indicates the worst situation. For example, the value of MDRI is 0.5994 which increases 37 percent compared to baseline scenario. Reliability and resilience of the system decline from 0.6719 to 0.3698 and from 0.0255 to 0.0092, respectively. Vulnerability of the system increases from 0.2644 to 0.3448.